Log in

No account? Create an account

prev | next

Guy to my immediate right has a few hundred dollars in front of him and he's a pretty loose aggressive player preflop. He raises to $20. i look down at my hand, and i have 9s9h. I call, there are two other callers.

Flop comes 6d7h8h. Initial raiser bets out $40. I call. Person to my left goes all-in for $52. Button calls, initial raiser calls, i call.

Turn comes a 10d. Initial raiser checks. i'm not sure what people are sitting on, but i put the button on a flush draw. he's the only guy i'm really worried about. I decide to bet $175. Button thinks for a long time, then calls. Initial raiser folds. I have $201 behind, button has me covered.

River comes out a black 5. I now have the second nuts, and i'm first to act. I think for a while - at first i was going to check because i was very vaguely scared of the 9J, but i just can't put him on that hand based on the way that he played it. It's possible that he has a 9 and is scared of *my* 9J, so the only way that i can avoid a chop and take the pot down is to shove and hope that he makes the incorrect play and folds his 9 if he has one. So i shove. He thinks for a very long time, trying to get a read on me, all of that. Based on how much he was thinking of it, i rethought his hand - if he had a missed flush draw, he wouldn't have been thinking about it so hard - now i think he has a set or a 9, and after he was thinking about it for longer, i don't put him on a 9 anymore. after a long time of thinking, he decides to call, and says, "if you have a 9, you're good."

so i took down a huge pot. The question is, should i have shoved instead on the turn?

a part of me is thinking 'yes' because let's suppose a H or D comes on the river. That's a scare card in two ways: it's scary for me if i put him on the flush draw and thinks he now made it, but it's also a scary card for *him* if he has a made hand already and that river now convinces him he should fold, so now i don't get the rest of his money into the pot. Granted, that would be fine if he also has a 9 and he folds what would have been a chop, but other scenarios don't play out like that.

i feel like in that hypothetical instance, checking with the intention of calling is the incorrect thing to do - i need to make the decision right then whether or not i'm going to commit my chips or not despite the scare card, and if i do, i'm going to shove. if not, i'm going to check fold. it's stupid to 'wait to see what he does' because it takes away my initiative.

i think i got lucky that the scare card didn't come on the river, and that's what makes me think that pushing on the turn would have been better overall. At the time i bet out $175 on the turn, there was $300ish in the pot. if instead i pushed for my $376, if he has a draw, he correctly folds (which is fine) or incorrectly calls (which is also fine). if he has a made hand, it puts more pressure on him to decide if his made hand is good (which could even include a 9).


tag cloud:


Jan. 19th, 2010 07:28 am (UTC)
Don't be too scared of getting committed on the flop.

Consider the types of hands you might be up against:

Overpair (JJ+)
Your equity: ~36%

Set (66 77 88)
Your equity: ~32%

Your equity: ~31%

Flush draw
Your equity: ~63%

Flush draw w/ live overcards (AhKh)
Your equity: ~50%

You're in very decent shape against all of those MONSTER hands. There's only one hand that has you wrecked (9T, particularly of hearts). No sense fearing that IMO.

Embrace the variance! STACK IT OFF!! :D
Jan. 19th, 2010 07:31 am (UTC)
Okay TxTh also has you in pretty bad shape. (23%.) Still not horrible, especially if you think anyone left in the hand will stack off with weird stuff, like 56, 89, K8, heart draw etc.
Jan. 19th, 2010 07:41 am (UTC)
don't try to dazzle me with your maths, foul wizard!
Jan. 19th, 2010 07:50 am (UTC)
burn the witch!


welcome to the lifeofmendel

you can also find me here:

meSubscribe to me on YouTube


March 2017