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hand analysis number two.

so here's a different hand that i played at the casino tonight that helped me turn my $350 loss due to being on the bottom side of set over set twice in one session into a $50ish profit. Again, i'm looking for some help to determine if i played the hand correctly.

Under the gun with a stack of about $450, i see 8d9d. i open for $15 (it's a 1/2 table) because suited diamond connectors are my randomizer (as in, preflop i play diamond connectors down to 4d3d in the same way i would play big pairs). I get three callers, one guy to my right, two to my left. The flop comes 9s10s2d. First to act checks. i catch the person to my left start to check out of turn. thus i put him on a draw and want him out of the pot and hopefully everyone else too, so i put out a continuation bet of $40. Out of turn checker thinks for a while, then puts out what feels like a reluctant call. But then, to my surprise, the remaining two players also call.

Turn comes Ah. First to act checks. I think for a while. If i had been able to isolate with my c-bet, i would have bet out again. But even with the weak call to my left, i don't feel comfortable with my position now with four people still in the pot, two of which just sat down so i don't really know how they play. I weigh my folding equity and decide that *someone* has a made hand (especially with the ace out) and i won't be able to get them to give up, so i eventually decide to concede and check, vaugely representing a big pair that feels uncomfortable that i just got outdrawn by someone playing an ace. If someone bets, and especially if there's a call, i can fold with the impression that i'm making a tough laydown with KK or QQ.

to my surprise, the other two players check.

River card comes 2h. First person checks. Again i think for a little while, as my evaluation of people's hands has shifted yet again. i find it extremely unlikely that anyone flopped 2 pair with the 2, so the 2 on the end effectively does nothing to improve anyone else's hand; if they were sitting on a set and trying to trap me, they had the nuts anyway since there's no possible straight or flush. If they were on a draw, they still missed. If someone had an ace, it makes no sense that they wouldn't take the initiative to bet that ace on the turn. Any other possible made hands fall into the category of uncomfortable; maybe someone has a 10 with a weak kicker or pocket 8s or even pocket jacks, and the turn ace made them too scared to commit more money into the pot.

So i decide right then that I need to take advantage of their lack of initiative, re-represent the strength that i had preflop and flop. Clearly they can't put me on AK or AQ because otherwise i would have bet the turn not checked it, but if they think that i'm trapping with a much stronger hand such as 99 or AA, then maybe they think that i checked the turn to induce a bet so i could check-raise.

By the same token, while i want to try to take down the pot, neither do i want to bluff all of my chips in case i'm running into a monster; i want to be able to back out if someone reraises me and now i'm pot-committed with merely 9s and 2s with an A kicker. So i bet $150, leaving $250ish behind. Two of the stacks have about that much or a little more, so they'd be committing all in. The third stack has me covered.

Everyone folded. One person who was out of the pot was convinced i had either AA or 99 and was trying to trap on the turn. Another who has played with me several times wasn't sure what to put me on after i checked the turn, but felt like i either had AA, KK, or QQ.

So. how did i do with that hand?

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Comments

(Anonymous)
Feb. 9th, 2010 10:33 pm (UTC)
Are you a +EV player at 50NL or 100NL online?
lifeofmendel
Feb. 11th, 2010 04:29 pm (UTC)
at the .50/1, yes. at the 1/2 or 2/4 i can't be unless i short buy based on the $$ i have in that account.

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